Stephanie Merry and Emily Yahr (c) 2015, The Washington Post. Hollywood’s favorite televised boozy night is on Sunday, as the Hollywood Foreign Press Association picks their best of the year — and more importantly, gives us our best early hint at how the Oscars might play out.
The Globes encompass TV awards too, though, and on that side, “Fargo” leads the field with five nominations, including acting nods for Billy Bob Thornton, Martin Freeman, Colin Hanks and Allison Tolman. Still, you can expect “True Detective” and its A-list cast to get most of the attention in the miniseries category with Matthew McConaughey and Woody Harrelson. That is, unless the captivating HBO miniseries “Olive Kitteridge,” with noms for its stars Frances McDormand and Bill Murray, comes along to steal the thunder.
It’s also shaping up to be another good year for Netflix, as “Orange is the New Black” and “House of Cards” have their fair share of nominations in the drama and comedy categories. The HFPA also showered lots of love on Showtime’s steamy love quadrangle “The Affair,” starring Brit actors Dominic Wilson and Ruth Wilson, so the cable network could also see a big night.
In the movie realm, “Birdman” is the frontrunner. The surreal movie by Alejandro González Iñárritu is credited with jump-starting Michael Keaton’s comeback, and the movie is up for seven awards, including one for Keaton.
Watching “Birdman” is a unique, sometimes bizarre experience, and its big competition is no less original in its approach. Richard Linklater’s “Boyhood” was shot over 12 years, and it’s up for five awards including a supporting actress nomination for Patricia Arquette, who is the clear front-runner.
Does all this originality leave any room for more typical awards bait, such as a big trio of biopics, “Selma,” “The Imitation Game” and “The Theory of Everything”? Let’s take a look.
Our predictions:
– Best TV Series, Drama
“The Affair” (Showtime)
“Downton Abbey” (PBS)
“Game of Thrones” (HBO)
“The Good Wife” (CBS)
“House of Cards” (Netflix)
Who will win: “House of Cards”
Who should win: “The Good Wife”
Dark horse: “The Affair”
Something tells us the members of the Hollywood Foreign Press Association are the type of fans who are still dazzled by the beautifully shot — but deadly boring — “House of Cards.”
– Best Actress in a TV Series, Drama
Claire Danes, “Homeland” (Showtime)
Viola Davis, “How to Get Away With Murder” (ABC)
Julianna Margulies, “The Good Wife” (CBS)
Ruth Wilson, “The Affair” (Showtime)
Robin Wright, “House of Cards” (Netflix)
Who will win: Viola Davis
Who should win: Julianna Margulies
Dark Horse: Ruth Wilson
Golden Globes voters tend to go with the splashy newcomer, and wow, does Davis make an impact as a brilliant, ice-cold law professor in her first big small-screen venture.
– Best Actor in a TV Series, Drama
Clive Owen, “The Knick” (Cinemax)
Liev Schreiber, “Ray Donovan” (Showtime)
Kevin Spacey, “House of Cards” (Netflix)
James Spader, “The Blacklist” (NBC)
Dominic West, “The Affair” (Showtime)
Who will win: Dominic West
Who should win: James Spader
Dark horse: Clive Owen
Spader’s weirdo tendencies come out in full force on the NBC drama, but West was one of the best things about the slow-moving Showtime soap.
– Best TV Series, Musical or Comedy
“Girls” (HBO)
“Jane the Virgin” (CW)
“Orange is the New Black” (Netflix)
“Silicon Valley” (HBO)
“Transparent” (Amazon)
Who will win: “Orange is the New Black”
Who should win: “Transparent”
Dark horse: “Jane the Virgin”
The move from the drama to comedy category should pay off big time for Netflix’s biggest hit. Then, again, as we saw with the surprise “Brooklyn Nine-Nine” win last year, voters really like quirky new shows.
– Best Actress in a TV Series, Musical or Comedy
Lena Dunham, “Girls” (HBO)
Edie Falco, “Nurse Jackie” (Showtime)
Julia Louis-Dreyfus, “Veep” (HBO)
Gina Rodriguez, “Jane the Virgin” (CW)
Taylor Schilling, “Orange Is the New Black” (Netflix)
Will win: Julia Louis-Dreyfus
Should win: Gina Rodriguez
Dark horse: Gina Rodriguez
Rodriguez is the delightful breakout star of the season, but you should never count out JLD.
– Best Actor in a TV Series, Musical or Comedy
Louis C.K., “Louie” (FX)
Don Cheadle, “House of Lies” (Showtime)
Ricky Gervais, “Derek” (Netflix)
William H. Macy, “Shameless” (Showtime)
Jeffrey Tambor, “Transparent” (Amazon)
Will win: Jeffrey Tambor
Should win: Jeffrey Tambor
Dark horse: Don Cheadle
Tambor’s role as a transgender dad is just the kind of groundbreaking role that Globes voters love.
– Best TV Movie or Miniseries
“Fargo” (FX)
“The Missing” (Starz)
“The Normal Heart” (HBO)
“Olive Kitteridge” (HBO)
“True Detective” (HBO)
Will win: “True Detective”
Should win: “Fargo”
Dark horse: “Olive Kitteridge”
“True Detective” was riveting — but doesn’t it seem like it aired a million years ago? Viewers are only just now getting caught up on the excellence of “Fargo.”
– Best Actress in a Miniseries or TV Movie
Maggie Gyllenhaal, “The Honourable Woman” (SundanceTV)
Jessica Lange, “American Horror Story: Freak Show” (FX)
Frances McDormand, “Olive Kitteridge” (HBO)
Frances O’Connor, “The Missing” (Starz)
Allison Tolman, “Fargo” (FX)
Will win: Maggie Gyllenhaal
Should win: Frances McDormand
Dark horse: Allison Tolman
No voter can resist a movie star in a TV role, though by that same token McDormand (who has been lavished with lots of critical love) might be able to sneak through.
– Best Actor in a Miniseries or TV Movie
Martin Freeman, “Fargo” (FX)
Woody Harrelson, “True Detective” (HBO)
Matthew McConaughey, “True Detective” (HBO)
Mark Ruffalo, “The Normal Heart” (HBO)
Billy Bob Thornton, “Fargo” (FX)
Will win: Matthew McConaughey
Should win: Woody Harrelson
Dark horse: Billy Bob Thornton
Now that “True Detective” is in the miniseries category where it belongs (instead of drama), McConaughey can finally right the Emmy Awards wrong, where he was bested by Bryan Cranston. We still maintain Harrelson was the best part of the show, though.
– Best Supporting Actress in a Series, MiniSeries or TV Movie
Uzo Aduba, “Orange is the New Black” (Netflix)
Kathy Bates, “American Horror Story: Freak Show” (FX)
Joanne Froggatt, “Downton Abbey” (PBS)
Allison Janney, “Mom” (CBS)
Michelle Monaghan, “True Detective” (HBO)
Will win: Uzo Aduba
Should win: Uzo Aduba
Dark horse: Allison Janney
This is a tough one. Janney is great in the surprisingly solid Chuck Lorre sitcom, but the critical adoration of “Orange is the New Black” might give Aduba the edge.
– Best Supporting Actor in a Series, Miniseries or TV Movie
Matt Bomer, “The Normal Heart” (HBO)
Alan Cumming, “The Good Wife” (CBS)
Colin Hanks, “Fargo” (FX)
Bill Murray, “Olive Kitteridge” (HBO)
Jon Voight, “Ray Donovan” (Showtime)
Will win: Bill Murray
Should win: Matt Bomer
Dark horse: Jon Voight
Won’t it be worth it just for the Bill Murray acceptance speech? You have to figure the HFPA voters know this too.
– Best Motion Picture, Drama
“Boyhood”
“Foxcatcher”
“The Imitation Game”
“Selma”
“The Theory of Everything”
Will win: “Boyhood”
Should win: “Selma”
Dark horse: “Foxcatcher”
“Boyhood” will win for its novel approach, but in terms of sheer artistry — and taking a step away from historical details for a moment — “Selma” was an impeccably filmed, phenomenally acted work, and its distilled approach to Martin Luther King Jr.’s life should be instructive (we can hope) for filmmakers working in the usually tired biopic genre.
– Best Actress in a Motion Picture, Drama
Jennifer Aniston, “Cake”
Felicity Jones, “The Theory of Everything”
Julianne Moore, “Still Alice”
Rosamund Pike, “Gone Girl”
Reese Witherspoon, “Wild”
Will win: Julianne Moore
Should win: Julianne Moore
Dark horse: Jennifer Aniston
Given that “Still Alice” hasn’t yet gotten a wide release, you’ll have to take our word for it: Moore is earth-shattering as a professor who learns she has early-onset Alzheimer’s, and she elevates an otherwise mediocre film.
– Best Actor in a Motion Picture, Drama
Steve Carell, “Foxcatcher”
Benedict Cumberbatch, “The Imitation Game”
Jake Gyllenhaal, “Nightcrawler”
David Oyelowo, “Selma”
Eddie Redmayne, “The Theory of Everything”
Will win: Eddie Redmayne
Should win: David Oyelowo
Dark horse: Steve Carell
During awards season, it pays to play a character with a disability (“My Left Foot,” “Forrest Gump,” “Temple Grandin,” “Rainman,” etc.). So Redmayne’s sharp evocation of Stephen Hawking should prevail. Though Carell deserves a little something for delivering the line, “My friends call me Eagle, or Golden Eagle,” with a straight face.
– Best Motion Picture, Musical or Comedy
“Birdman”
“The Grand Budapest Hotel”
“Into the Woods”
“Pride”
“St. Vincent”
Will win: “Birdman”
Should win: “Birdman”
Dark horse: “The Grand Budapest Hotel”
“Birdman” was wacky, original and looked like it was shot in one take (with the exception of the movie’s final scenes). It’s going to be hard to beat.
– Best Actress in a Motion Picture, Musical or Comedy
Amy Adams, “Big Eyes”
Emily Blunt, “Into The Woods”
Helen Mirren, “The Hundred-Foot Journey”
Julianne Moore, “Maps To The Stars”
Quvenzhane Wallis, “Annie”
Will win: Amy Adams
Should win: Emily Blunt
Dark horse: Helen Mirren
This category is a real toss-up between Adams and Blunt. “Big Eyes” felt like a misfire with Adams underacting beside an over-the-top Christoph Waltz. Blunt, on the other hand, was delightful in “Into the Woods” and gave her performance a certain naturalism that isn’t easy to accomplish in a musical.
– Best Actor in a Motion Picture, Musical or Comedy
Ralph Fiennes, “The Grand Budapest Hotel”
Michael Keaton, “Birdman”
Bill Murray, “St. Vincent”
Joaquin Phoenix, “Inherent Vice”
Christoph Waltz, “Big Eyes”
Will win: Michael Keaton
Should win: Michael Keaton
Dark horse: Ralph Fiennes
One look at Keaton levitating in tighty whities, and you just know that nothing can stop this comeback.
– Best Animated Feature Film
“Big Hero 6”
“The Book of Life”
“The Boxtrolls”
“How to Train Your Dragon 2”
“The LEGO Movie”
Will win: “The LEGO Movie”
Should win: “The LEGO Movie”
Dark horse: “How to Train Your Dragon 2”
Is it possible to make a good movie based on a toy? Yes, and “The LEGO Movie” proved it.
– Best Foreign Language Film
“Force Majeure”
“Gett: The Trial of Viviane Amsalem”
“Ida”
“Leviathan”
“Tangerines”
Will win: “Ida”
Should win: “Force Majeure”
Dark horse: “Leviathan”
“Ida” deals with award-bait themes — the Holocaust, religion, self-identity, family secrets. “Force Majeure” may feel less significant, but its incisive look at modern-day marriage and our complicated feelings about gender roles stick with you long after the credits roll.
– Best Supporting Actress in a Motion Picture
Patricia Arquette, “Boyhood”
Jessica Chastain, “A Most Violent Year”
Keira Knightley, “The Imitation Game”
Emma Stone, “Birdman”
Meryl Streep, “Into The Woods”
Will win: Patricia Arquette
Should win: Patricia Arquette
Dark horse: Emma Stone
This is Arquette’s award. She played the mother of the titular kid in “Boyhood” with an incredible ferocity. But Stone’s performance as a daughter languishing in her first-world problems shows her incredible range, especially during one memorable temper tantrum.
– Best Supporting Actor in a Motion Picture
Robert Duvall, “The Judge”
Ethan Hawke, “Boyhood”
Edward Norton, “Birdman”
Mark Ruffalo, “Foxcatcher”
J.K. Simmons, “Whiplash”
Will win: J.K. Simmons
Should win: J.K. Simmons
Dark horse: Edward Norton
Any other year, Edward Norton should have been a lock, playing a narcissistic actor in “Birdman.” But this is the role of Simmons’s already impressive career. You can practically see the blood coursing through his veins as he plays the mercurial, sometimes violent conductor of a college jazz ensemble.
– Best Director — Motion Picture
Wes Anderson, “The Grand Budapest Hotel”
Ava DuVernay, “Selma”
David Fincher, “Gone Girl”
Alejandro González Iñárritu, “Birdman”
Richard Linklater, “Boyhood”
Will win: “Boyhood”
Should win: “Birdman”
Dark horse: “Selma”
This is the war of the novelty factor. There’s the 12-year shoot of “Boyhood,” and then the strangeness of “Birdman” with its claustrophobic ambling through back rooms and hallways.
– Best Screenplay — Motion Picture
Wes Anderson, “The Grand Budapest Hotel”
Gillian Flynn, “Gone Girl”
Richard Linklater, “Boyhood”
Alejandro González Iñárritu, Nicolás Giacobone, Alexander Dinelaris, Armando Bo, “Birdman”
Graham Moore, “The Imitation Game”
Will win: “Birdman”
Should win: “Birdman”
Dark horse: “The Grand Budapest Hotel” and “Boyhood”
This is another iffy category. The fantastically weird “Birdman” looks like the favorite, but it has competition from two very different scripts: “Boyhood,” and all its naturalistic dialogue, and ultra-stylized “The Grand Budapest Hotel.”
– Best Original Song — Motion Picture
“Big Eyes” (“Big Eyes”)
“Glory” (“Selma”)
“Mercy Is” (“Noah”)
“Opportunity” (“Annie”)
“Yellow Flicker Beat” (“The Hunger Games: Mockingjay — Part I”)
Will win: “Glory”
Should win: “Glory”
Dark horse: “Big Eyes”
Since I’m apparently the only person who loved the song “Opportunity” from “Annie,” I have to admit defeat: There’s no hope for that song. Besides, “Glory” perfectly captures the tragedies and transcendence of “Selma.”
– Best Original Score — Motion Picture
Alexandre Desplat, “The Imitation Game”
Johann Johannsson, “The Theory of Everything”
Trent Reznor & Atticus Ross, “Gone Girl”
Antonio Sanchez, “Birdman”
Hans Zimmer, “Interstellar”
Will win: “Birdman”
Should win: “Birdman”
Dark horse: “Interstellar”
“Birdman’s” score was practically a character in the movie, the percussive sounds adding a certain unsettling discordance, and a Globe win would be nice for Sanchez, whose score has been disqualified from the Oscars. Zimmer’s score for “Interstellar” has a real shot, too, though its overpowering volume soured some viewers.
