The mounting likelihood that Donald Trump will lose the U.S. presidential election Tuesday is giving a boost to Constellation Brands Inc., the importer of Corona and other Mexican beer brands.
Constellation shares had their biggest rally in more than a month on Monday after the Federal Bureau of Investigation removed a cloud from Hillary Clinton’s campaign, saying she won’t face criminal charges related to use of a personal email server as secretary of state.
“The market is pricing in a higher probability of Clinton winning,” said Nik Modi, an analyst at RBC Capital Markets. “She is not as tough on Mexico as Trump.”
Constellation relies on Mexican imports for more than half of its net sales, making it especially vulnerable if the U.S. changes its stance toward its southern neighbor. Trump has pledged to build a new wall between the U.S. and Mexico, deport 11 million immigrants and renegotiate the North American Free Trade Agreement.
The FBI’s email probe had weighed on shares of Constellation, the largest importer of Mexican beer. Between the time FBI director James Comey wrote to Congress about a renewed investigation and the bureau’s announcement Sunday that her handling of e-mails didn’t constitute a crime, the stock dropped 3.9 percent.
The shares recouped that loss on Monday, rising as much as 4 percent to $166 in New York trading. It was the biggest one-day gain for the stock since Oct. 5, when the company raised its annual forecast.